Waiting Time as a Behavioral Barrier: Unmasking Procrastination in Vaccination
In the realm of public health, we often focus on safety and efficacy as the primary drivers of vaccine uptake. However, our recent research reveals a hidden, yet potent structural barrier: Waiting Time.
The “Cliff” of Procrastination
Are humans rational “exponential discounters,” or are we impulsive “hyperbolic discounters”?
Using a Mixed Logit model, we analyzed the decision-making process behind vaccination timing. The results were striking. Instead of a gradual decline in utility over time, we found what can only be described as a “behavioral cliff.”
If you ask someone to wait 3 months for a vaccine, their willingness to get vaccinated doesn’t just dip—it drops significantly. This validates the presence of Present Bias ($\kappa = 1.056$).
Key Findings
- Discounting is Non-Linear: The perceived disutility of a 3-month delay is comparable to a substantial reduction in the vaccine’s clinical efficacy.
- Institutional Trust Matters: Individuals with lower trust in institutions exhibit significantly higher sensitivity to service delays. For them, waiting isn’t just an inconvenience; it’s a psychological burden.
- Vulnerability Heterogeneity: Older populations and those with higher health concerns surprisingly show different delay-sensitivity patterns, often linked to their perceived “escape” from risk.
Policy Implications: “Time-to-Protection”
The takeaway for policymakers is clear: Time is a metric of performance.
To increase uptake, we must minimize the “time-to-protection” as much as we maximize clinical results. Vaccination campaigns should be as much about logistics and immediate accessibility as they are about science communication.
This post is based on my Job Market Paper (JMP) and upcoming PhD dissertation defense. Stay tuned for more insights as I prepare for my Final Oral Examination on April 14, 2026.